modelling

HydroMIP

A South African hydrological model inter-comparison project

An operational definition of the biome for global change research

[Access the paper here.](http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/nph.16580) Biomes are constructs for organising knowledge on the structure and functioning of the world's ecosystems, and serve as useful units for monitoring how the biosphere responds to …

Functional traits explain the Hutchinsonian niches of plant species

[Access the paper here](https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13048) Aim: The Hutchinsonian niche is a foundational concept in ecology and evolutionary biology that describes fundamental characteristics of any species: the global maximum population growth rate …

African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO2 under recent and near-future CO2 conditions

[Access the paper here.](https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1147-2020) Current rates of climate and atmospheric change are likely higher than during the last millions of years. Even higher rates of change are projected in CMIP5 climate model ensemble runs …

Mismatches between demographic niches and geographic distributions are strongest in poorly dispersed and highly persistent plant species

[Access the paper here.](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1908684117) Forecasts of global change impacts on biodiversity often assume that the current geographical distributions of species match their ecological niches. Here we examine this assumption …

Modelling potential hydrological returns from investing in ecological infrastructure: Case studies from the Baviaanskloof-Tsitsikamma and uMngeni catchments, South Africa

[Access the paper here.](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.03.003) A shortage of water currently threatens the development of the South African economy and the well-being of its people. Climate change, land degradation and an inherently …

The future distribution of the savannah biome: model-based and biogeographic contingency

[Access the paper here.](https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2015.0311) The extent of the savannah biome is expected to be profoundly altered by climatic change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Contrasting projections are given when using …

Understanding global change impacts on South African biomes using Dynamic Vegetation Models

[Access the paper here.](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sajb.2015.02.004) The distribution of South African biomes is expected to be drastically altered as a result of climatic change and increasing atmospheric CO2 in the 21st century. Developing the …

Paleoscape model of coastal South Africa during modern human origins: progress in scaling and coupling climate, vegetation, and agent-based models on XSEDE

[Access the paper here.](https://doi.org/10.1145/2792745.2792747) To better understand the origins of modern humans, we are developing a paleoscape model that simulates the climatic conditions and distribution of natural resources available to humans …

Modelling group dynamic animal movement

[Access the paper here.](https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.12155) Group dynamics are a fundamental aspect of many species' movements. The need to adequately model individuals' interactions with other group members has been recognized, particularly in …